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楼市“春天派”希望落空:市场降准预期终结

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月17日 13:41:09
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(  对)(于)(市)(场)(有)(关)(全)(面)(下)(调)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(的)(预)(期)(,央)(行)(行)(长)(周)(小)(川)(5月)(10日)(在)(清)(华)(五)(道)(口)(全)(球)(金)(融)(论)(坛)(上)(表)(示)(,短)(期)(数)(据)(出)(来)(不)(一)(定)(说)(明)(问)(题)(,央)(行)(一)(直)(在)(流)(动)(性)(方)(面)(进)(行)(微)(调)(,目)(前)(国)(务)(院)(强)(调)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(要)(有)(定)(力)(,不)(会)(采)(取)(大)(规)(模)(的)(刺)(激)(。
  近)(日)(,央)(行)(发)(布)(《2014年)(一)(季)(度)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(》,其)(中)(“灵)(活)(运)(用)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(、存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(……”的)(表)(述)(被)(部)(分)(市)(场)(人)(士)(看)(作)(是)(央)(行)(降)(准)(的)(暗)(示)(。如)(今)(看)(来)(,这)(只)(不)(过)(是)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(报)(告)(中)(例)(行)(常)(用)(的)(表)(述)(,却)(被)(部)(分)(的)(专)(家)(曲)(解)(为)(央)(行)(暗)(示)(降)(准)(的)(信)(号)(。另)(一)(个)(更)(加)(关)(键)(的)(数)(据)(是)(,4月)(份)(CPI公)(布)(为)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.8%后)(,一)(些)(专)(家)(大)(惊)(失)(色)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(将)(要)(出)(现)(通)(缩)(状)(况)(,据)(此)(认)(为)(央)(行)(很)(快)(降)(准)(。同)(时)(,一)(些)(楼)(市)(春)(天)(派)(、上)(涨)(派)(在)(自)(媒)(体)(里)(呼)(吁)(甚)(至)(游)(说)(央)(行)(降)(准)(,旨)(在)(挽)(救)(已)(经)(不)(可)(挽)(救)(的)(高)(房)(价)(。
  以)(上)(三)(个)(方)(面)(因)(素)(使)(得)(降)(准)(与)(否)(扑)(朔)(迷)(离)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(不)(确)(定)(性)(大)(增)(,大)(大)(影)(响)(了)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。在)(这)(关)(键)(时)(期)(,央)(行)(行)(长)(周)(小)(川)(明)(确)(表)(示)(,要)(有)(定)(力)(,不)(会)(采)(取)(大)(规)(模)(的)(刺)(激)(,彻)(底)(终)(结)(了)(市)(场)(降)(准)(预)(期)(,基)(本)(可)(以)(排)(除)(全)(面)(降)(准)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。也)(说)(明)(此)(前)(一)(些)(专)(家)(以)(及)(楼)(市)(春)(天)(派)(们)(仍)(然)(习)(惯)(于)(过)(去)(大)(投)(资)(、大)(肆)(放)(水)(货)(币)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(的)(思)(维)(定)(势)(。用)(这)(种)(落)(伍)(的)(思)(想)(来)(判)(断)(目)(前)(市)(场)(化)(机)(制)(起)(决)(定)(性)(作)(用)(的)(新)(政)(策)(走)(向)(,必)(然)(得)(出)(诸)(如)(降)(准)(等)(许)(多)(错)(误)(的)(判)(断)(和)(分)(析)(,误)(导)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。
  中)(央)(坚)(持)(订)(立)(不)(刺)(激)(的)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(政)(策)(导)(向)(应)(该)(说)(是)(完)(全)(正)(确)(,央)(行)(不)(全)(面)(降)(准)(而)(是)(依)(靠)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(进)(行)(微)(调)(的)(做)(法)(是)(完)(全)(必)(要)(的)(。目)(前)(,从)(各)(个)(方)(面)(都)(看)(不)(出)(有)(任)(何)(降)(准)(的)(必)(要)(。当)(前)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(增)(大)(是)(一)(个)(客)(观)(事)(实)(。但)(是)(,市)(场)(并)(不)(缺)(乏)(流)(动)(性)(,而)(且)(还)(相)(对)(充)(裕)(。这)(充)(分)(说)(明)(目)(前)(的)(经)(济)(走)(势)(与)(货)(币)(信)(贷)(供)(应)(量)(多)(少)(没)(有)(必)(然)(联)(系)(。采)(取)(降)(准)(向)(市)(场)(注)(入)(流)(动)(性)(,只)(能)(助)(推)(物)(价)(而)(不)(能)(稳)(增)(长)(。在)(经)(济)(学)(上)(表)(现)(为)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(已)(经)(处)(在)(生)(产)(可)(能)(性)(边)(界)(以)(外)(,即)(:超)(过)(了)(生)(产)(潜)(力)(,在)(这)(种)(状)(态)(下)(注)(入)(流)(动)(性)(只)(能)(引)(起)(物)(价)(翻)(倍)(一)(样)(上)(涨)(。
  应)(对)(本)(轮)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(增)(大)(必)(须)(摆)(脱)(过)(去)(大)(投)(资)(、大)(肆)(放)(水)(货)(币)(的)(路)(径)(选)(择)(。采)(取)(通)(过)(市)(场)(化)(改)(革)(释)(放)(改)(革)(红)(利)(来)(稳)(增)(长)(,最)(主)(要)(的)(是)(通)(过)(放)(权)(于)(市)(场)(,让)(利)(于)(经)(济)(体)(,激)(活)(市)(场)(的)(内)(生)(动)(力)(,把)(民)(间)(资)(本)(的)(投)(资)(潜)(力)(、13亿)(人)(口)(的)(消)(费)(潜)(力)(释)(放)(出)(来)(。这)(是)(根)(本)(出)(路)(和)(治)(本)(之)(策)(。如)(果)(还)(采)(取)(货)(币)(信)(贷)(大)(放)(水)(的)(办)(法)(,那)(么)(,在)(推)(高)(物)(价)(的)(同)(时)(,只)(能)(再)(次)(助)(推)(房)(价)(暴)(涨)(。
  笔)(者)(多)(次)(呼)(吁)(货)(币)(政)(策)(工)(具)(中)(最)(应)(该)(慎)(用)(的)(就)(是)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(工)(具)(。应)(该)(效)(仿)(美)(国)(逐)(步)(弃)(用)(导)(致)(经)(济)(波)(动)(过)(大)(的)(存)(准)(率)(工)(具)(,而)(转)(向)(温)(和)(的)(公)(开)(市)(场)(工)(具)(调)(控)(为)(主)(上)(。过)(去)(多)(年)(,央)(行)(之)(所)(以)(频)(繁)(使)(用)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(工)(具)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(由)(中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(结)(构)(决)(定)(的)(。即)(:在)(出)(口)(导)(向)(型)(经)(济)(中)(,外)(汇)(储)(备)(增)(长)(过)(快)(导)(致)(被)(动)(发)(行)(基)(础)(货)(币)(过)(多)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,只)(有)(采)(取)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(工)(具)(对)(冲)(,来)(回)(收)(过)(多)(的)(流)(动)(性)(。如)(果)(不)(是)(央)(行)(采)(取)(频)(繁)(上)(调)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(的)(做)(法)(,将)(29万)(亿)(元)(的)(基)(础)(货)(币)(关)(进)(笼)(子)(里)(,单)(一)(个)(货)(币)(因)(素)(就)(会)(使)(得)(房)(价)(物)(价)(比)(现)(在)(要)(高)(出)(许)(多)(倍)(。
  存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(已)(经)(不)(是)(一)(个)(信)(号)(工)(具)(,事)(实)(上)(已)(成)(为)(央)(行)(对)(冲)(巨)(额)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(的)(一)(种)(工)(具)(了)(。考)(虑)(央)(行)(要)(不)(要)(调)(整)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(,应)(该)(看)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(的)(多)(和)(少)(。而)(目)(前)(,外)(汇)(储)(备)(还)(在)(增)(加)(,被)(动)(发)(行)(货)(币)(还)(没)(停)(止)(,怎)(么)(可)(能)(降)(低)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(而)(进)(行)(反)(向)(操)(作)(呢)(?假)(如)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(开)(始)(下)(降)(,外)(汇)(占)(款)(连)(续)(最)(少)(三)(个)(月)(以)(上)(走)(低)(,这)(时)(降)(低)(存)(准)(率)(才)(有)(可)(能)(。因)(为)(,必)(须)(对)(冲)(市)(场)(中)(被)(动)(回)(笼)(的)(基)(础)(货)(币)(,以)(防)(止)(市)(场)(经)(济)(运)(行)(中)(的)(流)(动)(性)(不)(足)(。
  目)(前)(央)(行)(正)(在)(采)(取)(短)(期)(性)(流)(动)(工)(具)(、公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(等)(进)(行)(货)(币)(调)(节)(,在)(此)(情)(况)(下)(,无)(必)(要)(大)(规)(模)(调)(降)(存)(准)(率)(。
  余)(丰)(慧)((知)(名)(财)(经)(金)(融)(评)(论)(员)()
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